Over 90 percent of ivory in large, seized shipments is from elephants that died less than three years before, research shows.
Scientists arrived at the conclusion by mixing a new approach to radiocarbon dating for ivory samples with genetic analysis tools that gave conservationists a picture of when and where poachers are killing elephants.
Lesley Chesson, coauthor of the new study and CEO of Isoforensics, said:
“This work provides for the first time actionable intelligence on how long it’s taking illegal ivory to reach the marketplace. The answer is not long at all, which suggests there are very well-developed and large networks for moving ivory across Africa and out of the continent.”
Lead author Thure Cerling, professor of geology and geophysics at the University of Utah, added:
“Apart from the actual killing, there’s the trade on the ground before it gets to ports, the actual shipments through shipping containers, and then the problem of the demand side. This additional information can be helpful to people trying to address those issues.”
In June 2016, the United States banned nearly all commerce in elephant ivory, which came 26 years after a ban on international trade in ivory. Both measures aimed to curtail the widespread poaching of elephants, whose numbers have plummeted since the 1980s.
Poaching still kills an estimated 8 percent of African elephants each year, or around 96 elephants per day. Demand for elephant ivory and other illegal products derived from endangered animals has grown in Asia in recent years, opening a fresh battleground in the struggle against illegal ivory, even as US markets shut down.
Bans typically allow the sale of ivory that was legally acquired prior to 1976, including heirloom or antique pieces. Confirming the age of those pieces, however, relies on proper documentation.
Traders in illegal ivory sometimes use this clause as a cover, claiming that their wares are older than they really are.
Researchers applied radiocarbon dating, a technique from forensic science, to estimate the age of samples in seized ivory shipments, with some adjustments for a Cold War legacy.
Above-ground nuclear weapons testing through the 1960s doubled the concentration of radioactive carbon-14 in the atmosphere. This heightened carbon-14 signature was preserved in plants, which take up atmospheric carbon, and transferred to herbivores like elephants.
Carbon-14 levels have been declining since the 1960s, and scientists can use the carbon-14 signature in a bone, tusk, or tooth to determine, within about a year, when the material was formed. And since elephants grow new material at the base of their tusks, the ivory there contains the carbon-14 signature of the plants the elephant has recently eaten.
Forensic scientists have used this “bomb carbon” signature to estimate the ages of human remains in cold cases and track the transit time of cocaine shipments. Now researchers have applied the method to seized ivory.
Coauthor Sam Wasser, professor of biology at the University of Washington, led efforts to gather ivory samples from large stockpiles seized by law enforcement officials between 2002 and 2014.
Of 231 samples collected, only one returned was greater than six years between the time of the elephant’s death and the seizure of the ivory — known as the lag time.
Nearly all of the analyzed ivory had a lag time of around two to three years, suggesting that the shipments did not come from stockpiles or from old sources. Instead, large shipments of ivory are likely composed of recently poached pieces.
Combining Cerling’s radiocarbon data with Wasser’s genetic analysis to determine the geographic origin of the ivory, the researchers constructed a picture of which regions have established rapid pipelines to get poached ivory to market.
In the study, seized ivory is classified as either originating in East Africa, the Tridom region of west-central Africa, West Africa, or Zambia. Additionally, samples were classified as having a rapid lag time of less than 12 months, intermediate lag time of 12 to 24 months or a slow lag time of greater than 24 months.
Ivory attributed to East Africa had a higher proportion of rapid-transit samples than the other regions, suggesting a strong distribution pipeline from the region. Ivory from Tridom was more likely to contain slow-transit ivory, and both West African and Zambian ivory exhibited intermediate lag times. The information can help law enforcement focus on the worst poaching regions and also provide information on the health of elephant populations.
“If all of the seizures are really recent, within the past two to three years, we can use that to determine the overall killing rate of elephants in Africa,” Cerling says.
Coauthors are from Save the Elephants, Oxford University, Columbia University, and the University of California, Irvine. The work received funding from the Paul G. Allen Family Foundation and Save the Elephants.
Image: An ivory seizure made in Malaysia in 2012, weighing 6 metric tons. Syarifah Khadiejah Syed Mohd Kamil/Malaysia Department of Wildlife and National Parks